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Summaries of Ozone Seasons
Forecasting Procedures
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Forecasting Procedures
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Ozone forecasts are made seven days a week for four air districts in the Sacramento region from May through October. Ozone forecasts are issued at 1100 PDT for the current- and next-day peak ozone concentrations and the two- to five-day peak ozone AQI level (good, moderate, unhealthy for sensitive groups, unhealthy, very unhealthy) for the four major air districts that comprise this metropolitan region. The forecasts are issued based on 8-hr average ozone concentrations. To produce daily ozone forecasts, meteorologists use air quality and weather data collected at monitoring sites across the region as well as the latest National Weather Service (NWS) data.
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Forecasters follow a protocol to produce the daily forecasts. The types of tasks performed include
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| 1. |
Reviewing the previous day’s ozone concentrations and weather data |
| 2. |
Examining whether or not yesterday’s forecast was accurate and why |
| 3. |
Reviewing the current day’s air quality and weather observations |
| 4. |
Reviewing current predicted weather |
| 5. |
Reviewing output from the following forecasting tools:
Climatology
Criteria
CART
Regression Equations
LSOFT
HYSPLIT
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| 6. |
Preparing the forecast and discussion about it |
| 7. |
Faxing and e-mailing the forecast to the Air Districts and posting forecasts on the Internet by 11:00 a.m. |
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Sending the forecast to the public thorugh the AirAlert system. |
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Throughout the day, forecasters monitor the weather and air quality conditions and may issue a separate health advisory forecast if ozone concentrations warrant. A Health Advisory Notification is a special State-mandated air quality statement issued to schools, businesses, and residents in the Sacramento area to alert the public that excessively high ozone concentrations (at or above 0.15 ppm) exist. A health advisory form is issued to the SMAQMD by 2:00 p.m. designating the expected times, areas, and peak ozone values. Fortunately, only one health advisory was issued for the Sacramento region during the 2001 summer ozone season.
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